Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade

Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade


The world is running out of oil. At least that was the idea behind the “peak oil” hypothesis that dominated economic thinking for decades. But it turns out that with fracking, deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there’s
a lot more oil in the world than we once thought. The old “peak oil” theory ain’t happening. But what if instead of running out of oil
we just stopped buying the stuff? Most oilmen scoff at the idea. There are one
billion gas guzzling cars on the road worldwide today, and only one tenth of one percent of
them have a plug. OPEC contends that even in the year 2040, EVs will make up just one
percent. But don’t be so sure. Consider the “S Curve.” S Curves are used to describe the spread of
new technologies over time, like early refrigerators and color TVs. Growth starts off slowly at
first, and then when the product really starts to connect with everyday people: We have liftoff.
Eventually the market gets saturated and growth tapers off, forming the top of the “S”. Predicting the S Curve for electric cars is
extremely difficult, because we’re making assumptions about demand for a type of vehicle
that doesn’t even exist yet: fast, affordable, and spacious cars that have an electric range
of at least 2-to-300 miles. But here’s what we know: In the next few
years Tesla, Nissan and Chevy plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000
range. And other carmakers and tech companies are investing billions on dozens of new models
due out in the next four years. By 2020, some of these will be faster, safer, cheaper, and
more convenient than their gasoline counterparts. That sure seems like the point when the S
curve goes vertical. To start an oil crash, you don’t need to
replace all of the cars on the road today. You just need to reduce demand enough to cause
a glut of unwanted oil. Consider the oil crash that started in 2014. That was caused by too much supply,
when producers started pumping out an extra 2 million barrels a day. So when electric vehicles are able to displace
that much on the demand side, it should also cause a crash. When might that happen? Tesla is building factories to go from about
50,000 sales last year to 500,000 in 2020. Let’s assume for a minute that Tesla can
meet its own forecasts. And let’s assume that other carmakers maintain their current
combined market share for plugins. If each electric vehicle displaces about 15
barrels a year, here’s the impact on oil from all the EVs worldwide.
At this rate we hit our benchmark of 2 million barrels of oil a day displaced as early as
2023. That’s an oil crisis. And the thing is, it’s just the beginning. It’s not
at all unreasonable to assume that by 2040 nearly half of the world’s new cars will
have a plug. Sure you’re skeptical. The price of electric
cars still needs to come down, there aren’t yet enough fast charging stations for convenient
long-distance road trips. Many new drivers in developing countries like China and India
will still choose gasoline and diesel. But imagine a future when the rumbling streets
of New York and New Delhi… suddenly fall silent with electric engines. What if global
demand for oil starts to fall—at first by a trickle, but then in a rush. Trillions invested
in oil will be lost, while trillions in new energy will be won. The power of nations will
be shuffled. That’s the promise of the new peak oil, and it may be coming sooner
than you think.

About the Author: Michael Flood

100 Comments

  1. We're not running out of oil, it's just bullshit to manipulate the market just like they're also saying that we're running out of food.

    Anyway, electric all the way, fuck oil.

    Also, they're focusing so much on battery tech that soon that won't be a problem due to the possibility of wireless charging on the go 🧐

  2. Electric cars are not the solution! More over battery's are not the solution! The production ist to dirty and the efficiency is too bad. The important think is cars are to heavy and big!

  3. This retard assume that electric cars is auto fueled by "clean energy sources" ehm no. Not how it works. Most of the electric cars are currently fueled by coal.

  4. The would isn't running out oil renews , plus the amount of plastic in a ev uses nearly the same amount of petroleum that an older gas vehicle used in there entire life. Green vehicles are far from being green.

  5. The best solution for electric cars would be perfection of the graphene battery. Electric cars can be fully charged in seconds to minutes. Once that happens, all gasoline vehicles will become Obsolete overnight

  6. Only a brief mention of a crash too long ago to remember and no explanation why low demand would cause it to happen again.

  7. You're wrong about China and India they are leading the revolution for electric vehicles China has more EV's on the road than the rest of the world combined and India is coming up right behind them releasing electric motorcycles electric scooters and soon electric cars

  8. Most of the energy that will power the cars will be by burning fuel which would require a lot of new tech to overcome and a lot of change in people life style

  9. This is quickly becoming a reality. Toronto recently started testing their new 100% electric buses, but they likely won't be used for regular use until they can drastically increase the battery capacity. On another note, there has been streetcars in Toronto for years that have always run on electrical energy from the above suspended wires.

  10. 3 years later and it seems like all the "We don't know WHEN will it happen." Things are here.

    We only lack people buying the actual cars…

  11. oil companies are not going to go out of business anytime soon. Power needs to be made for an electric car. How you do that is mostly by burning something. Unless you go Nuke than we will end up burning the cheapest full that is available. That can be a petroleum product, Natural gas or Coal. Don't count on Solar. So by the law of Money if we stop burning it in the cars the price will drop and then it will be cheaper and someone will put it thru a Power station to produce the power for the car.

  12. Do you have sources on your fuel consumption information? I'm having some trouble believing your math with one EV displacing 15 bbl/yr. Assuming you mean 15 bbl (630 gallons) of gasoline, that's over 15,000 miles traveled per vehicle, per year, using a relatively modest fuel economy of 25 mpg per vehicle. With most personal vehicles averaging closer to 30-35 mpg I find it hard to believe that even 10% of them are using 15 bbl/yr. That would mean almost everyone is driving ~20,000 miles per year, which I find unrealistic. At the very least I would think the impact that EV's will have on the oil market presented in the video are wildly overstated. The uptake curve may be the same, but I would expect a disruption in oil much farther down the curve based on what I worked out in this comment.

  13. you STUPID CUNT. I just do not believe that ANYBODY other than a brainless moron would publish this NONSENSE. WHERE do you thing 90% of the energy required to power the electric car manufacturing process comes from : HINT : it's not wind energy !! Also rare earth Minerals for batteries ??? Check no or yes ?? If you take ALL of the existing diesel and benzine cars off the World s roads tomorrow it would reduce refined oil usage by about 2%. Get real you FOOL …. do you understand what exactly or even not, is coming down the track in less than FIVE YEARS for our World ???? Oil will effectively expire in less than five years except for the very wealthy. Water will be a very expensive commodity – more so than even refined oil. Food will not be dleivered. Thi is not doomsday. Look around you and do some research by scientists who KNOW exactly where we are now.

  14. Don't fool yourself, No-One is going to get out of there "Hot-Rods"! Tesla, Has not Produced a Convertible, Car In fact; There is a Lovely, Smart, Woman, by the name of "Simone," Who went to Tesla, and said i want an "Electric-pick-Up-Truck" Now!!! Elon Musk, Only had One Or Two of Those Big Semi Trucks. So; Simone, Bought a "Brand-New" Tesla-Model #3, Sedan, Drove it home, Bought a New "Saws-All," Some New Saws-All Blades, Coveralls, Gloves, Safety Face Shield, Rented a Double Wide Car Garage somewhere in San Francisco, "Put-Her-Finger-InThe-Air and "Cut The Rear Part of the back door down, Removed the Trunk, Located a Used Ford Pick-Up-Truck Bed, Cut that bed up to "Fit" That Tesla, Sedan; She also bought or fabricated a rack to haul things with, like lumber, installed Running lite's for dark night driving! Fabricated a Roll cage and a Device to Re-Enstall the Safety Support,s She needed to make the "TRUCK-LA" Sturdy like it was, When She Bought The Car New. People who are "Smart" Who know what they want in life, Will-Stop-Going-To-College Until they know "WHY-They-Want or NEED-TO-Go-College"?? Other Than get a Degree an a Those Big Student Loans and no Job you want to work at!! I am not sure if Elon Musk, had a chance to look at the work Simone, did after completing the work she wanted, But That "TRUCK-LA" Looks like it was assembled on the assembly line! She did a "Great Job".

  15. I would strongly suspect that it's not running out. You don't claim that somthing you want price for is in abundance do you. Somthing rare has more value. Also those that have money invested in green power very much need us to all think how nessesary their wares are soon to be don't they. Its no more complex than that. And then there are those that feel it should not be used in the name of carbon tax, the big hoax… , there is plenty of coal too so lives, economy and our infrastructure should not be destabilised in such a hurry.

  16. Thank you for this video: it is easily dated because you say "people in China may choose not to buy electric" Welly Well?! now China has implemented a new law that if you want to buy a Gasoline car; you have to pay $10,000. to get a license for it ….. there is no such thing as CHOICE! in that case.

  17. Tesla is going to break the 2020 target one year early as per Elon’s forecast it’s already on the way to reach 500,000 cars in 2019 if the the China factory starts to roll, Which by the way from the construction updates looks-like they will achieve it.

  18. well within a decade. internal combustion engines should have been illegal as soon as Ev's were brought to market. like asbestos…. fucked off asap…

  19. If the US and other countries would stop subsidizing solar and wind, they would all go the way of the goony bird.

  20. The American consumer is alot different then alot of the Eastern consumer Americans are gonna buy what they want they don't care about practicality keep in mind just the f150 sells more trucks a year then brands sell Total in there whole line up Ford sells more then Volkswagen and Audi sells in there whole inventory and forcing regulatory actions is just gonna get another Trump the asshole got elected because people got pissed off at the government control consumer in the us are exact opposite of Western consumers and us consumer are also very different then European consumer I'm hard right but this globalization trend people are trying to push is definitely gonna end badly it will lead us to a another world war and one that could destroy the world

  21. The biggest impediment to electric cars is no longer the technology. Building the charging stations all around the country particularly in US is going take years. US Government can play part but they won’t. The two parties will squabble for years – of course with the generous donation from the oil industry lobbyists. In the meantime China and other Asian countries will just go ahead and do it.

  22. I'm going to an EV within the next two years so I can charge it from my PV array on the roof. Charging stations have nearly reached a tipping point so you can travel nearly anywhere and I can do my part to save the planet. I won't shed a tear for the fossil fuel industries demise. I just hope for the sake of future generations that we leave enough of it in the ground so that the planet is not excessively over heated.

  23. The thing is once you try an electric car out you just don't like going back. The more people have one the more people that will experience one and the more people that will want their next one to be electric. And 2020 seems to be the year in which normal family cars will become available in electric versions with acceptable ranges. It can go extremely quickly from there.

  24. I'm absolutely tired of having OPEC countries defining if Europeans are going to pay more or less for fuel to drive to work and therefore making everything more expensive!
    I can't wait for electric cars to take over in Europe, because then we control the price of our own generated electricity for driving!!…
    Some people still don't understand that EVs in the EU are a matter of gaining more energy independence from foreign countries!!!

  25. 3 years on, Tesla never produces the no. of EV as promised, American car manufacturers are still slow in their act. But China are moving towards EV only much faster than you think. Elimination of fuel burning vehicles is the way to go, but "excess" oil will not be wasted, it is still important for other chemical products.

  26. boy is Bloomberg on the side of the oil companies because they mention India and China most people will buy by oil cars in 2030 still, actually this video just three years old and China and India move so fast their outlawng gasoline way before

  27. Well if the electric car market wasn't destroyed by money hungry oil companies a hundred years ago we would already have widespread use of electric vehicles better late than never tho

  28. cars should be banned in cities period. there deadly. cities should invest in better public transportation and run 24hours. to more areas. btw it would take around 50 years from 2019. to get all gas cars off the road. t

  29. Well, that's interesting…because as someone who mines the sulphide nickel used to make batteries I can tell you there isn't enough nickel on the planet to meet 10% of the demand. So I'm afraid this rush to E.V.'s isn't going to work out very well no matter how many of these predictions come out…there ain't enough nickel in the ground and that's a fact.

  30. Its amazing that people continue to buy huge SUV and trucks. For every gallon of gas they burn the buyer should have to pay a carbon tax.

  31. Just have subscription from a battery company. Do not charge just replace with charged one. Instead of petrol company We will have a battery company. Like lpg cylinder refilling. Refill battery

  32. WOW! Boy did you get it wrong about China and India. All ICE vehicles will be banned in China, and EV demand in India is soaring. Norway has banned sale of ICE cars as well.
    I guess some are pushing the German auto industry propaganda that burning diesel cleans the air. LOL!

  33. What a load of bullshit, Why That. the price of electricity, would go up and even now we can't pay our electricity bill, because of high price of electricity (NOT cheaper)

  34. Hahahahahah more fake news. By 2030-2040 the develop world will use 8 million barrels of oil per day while the developing nations increase to 26 million barrels per day. The reason why is increase in population, urbanization and the rise of the populations climbing out of poverty. I

  35. No mention of how the price of electricity will rise as demand for it increases and the price of oil will fall as demand for it decreases, creating a resistance to EV take up.

  36. If tesla release its product in the Philippines, I would buy one. It is fast AF leaving race cars in dust, cheaper to maintain, safer and oh yea, it's a 4 seater.

  37. If – if – if – if… What if ? The UK, especially London and other cities following have high regulation. Getting tighter all the time. Yes car's can be pumped out of factories and shackle people with penalties but. There is no way at present 2020 any of the UK infrustruct comes anywhere near being able to supply the electricity for vehicles. Then you also have to add changes in the home, work place and so on. It's not just about car's – motor vehicles. London regulation made me get rid of a car because I was running it on Veg oil. Fresh veg oil. ( Not in their regulation ) – Not enough money in it ! IF, they really want to be serious about, " The Planet." I believe a combination of biofuel – which can also self generate, and electricity is the sensible way to go. There's penty of oil left. And don't think for one minute money and war's won't continue to use it..

  38. This is such flawed logic, the curve will happen but producers will cut their export amounts to keep prices at $65 a barrel. The glut only happended before due to greed from countries like Iran and was adjusted for.

  39. Here's a cool fact: In 2019, in Venezuala, for $1 us Dollar, you can purchase over 900,000 gallons of petrol fuel,
    that's enough for your entire lifetime, your childrens and their grandchildrens lifetime and more.
    What the big con game is that the Oil Cartel has kept hidden is that there is no oil shortage, but in fact a great overabundance of it, and it has been outrageously overpriced – this global Monopoly/Cartel keeps prices artificially inflated in Consumer nations, while they buy out patents and destroy all electric vehicle manufacturing – we had electric cars in the 1880's for christs sake – but the Oil Cartel SUPPRESSED this invention for well over a century because it threatened their industry. They care about their wallets, not about innovation. We have all been scammed and treated like slaves by these Corporations

  40. I love my Nissan Leaf… electric cars are the future, once you drive one you’ll never go back…. in 50,000 miles I only put air in the tires… and of course charged it at home

  41. No mention of planes, trains, ships, submarines, heavy duty equipment etc…still using fossil fuels ? What makes you think lower income people are going to buy $ 35k+ Teslas over old reliable $500 Hondas/Toyotas ?

  42. Maybe true for ground vehicles, but I'm sure oil will still have a mass market for aviation. Energy density is still a big problem for aircraft especially since they can only move by exerting forces on the air. and jet engines will always do this better than propellers

  43. How about electricity? No more fossil fuels and now the electric demand is going up you know damn well solar panels and wind mill will not produce enough eletricty for our needs.

  44. no it won't they will just sell more to the electricity generating companies. electric cars aren't all what they seem to be. the batteries are mostly made in China and cause huge pollution problems there. The electricity has got to come from somewhere i.e. fossil fuel generating plants, more pollution! They have done it again, invented the screw driver before the screw! invest more in renewable energy first!!!

  45. Great video thank you for the very interesting projections. Definitely not hard to see this happening over the coming years…

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